Covid-19 briefing

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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 20 October

The global economy is forecasted to return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021 or early 2022. 

The Institute of International Finance forecasts the real GDP growth rate of the UAE to rise by 4.9% in 2022.

3.3% 

According to the World Bank, the sub-Saharan African region is forecasted to grow by 3.3% in 2021. 

 5.7%

World economic growth is projected at 5.7% in 2021 and at 4.5% in 2022, according to HIS Markit.

Impact of Covid-19 on equity indices

- SECTOR IMPACT: MEDICAL DEVICES -

Latest update: 07 October

industry response issues

$5.7bn

After sharply contracting to $4bn in 2020, GlobalData found the neuromodulation market sharply bounced back to $5.7bn in 2021.

73.4%

GlobalData expects the global ventilator market value to be $2.6bn in 2021, a decrease of 73.4% from the height of the pandemic. 

Medical value chain impact

Short-term impact

Logistics and dearth of device components supplies will be major issues for all. Most medical companies will show a decline in revenues in Q1 and Q2 due to the limited number of procedures being done.


Mid-term impact

As concerns over availability of materials subside, manufacturing process will begin to resume, though will initially lag relative to regular operations.


Developers of Covid-19 interventions could thrive; the bulk of the industry will be challenged with supply chain interruptions and limited procedures. Growth will be derived from opportunities to manufacture and support distribution of Covid-19 tests and test capabilities.


Long-term impact

The need for devices will grow above pre-Covid-19 levels due to the increased number of procedures to catch up with the delay. In some cases, not all missed procedures will be caught up. Sales volumes will increase as devices are sold to make up for the lack of procedures in early 2020.

Key Medical device market developments

Ear, nose and throat devices


On 20 August, Cochlear Ltd, the world’s leading manufacturer of hearing implants, released its 2021 full-year earnings report, including the second half of its fiscal period (January 2021 to June 2021) when the impact of Covid-19 on the medical devices industry had significantly subsided compared to the previous year.


During this time, the company’s revenue for H2 2021 increased by 31% compared to H2 2020 due to the resumption of elective surgeries across most regions.


Drug delivery devices


Baxter benefited from Covid-19, at least initially, when there was an upsurge in demand in particular for its infusion pumps.


However, despite that, after Baxter reported Q2 2021 results of $3.1bn, an increase of 14% year-over-year, with an increase of 6% in the US and an increase of 19% internationally, on 4 August, Baxter stock fell 4% over the last five trading days and was down over 7% in the last year.


Hospital supplies


Several parts of the world are entering a fourth wave of Covid-19, especially with the emergence of the Delta variant. A surge in Covid-19 cases means there is an expected surge in demand for disposable hospital supplies globally.

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