Top themes for the healthcare sector in 2024

In 2023, the medical industry has undergone sweeping changes as researchers and companies moved away from a Covid-19 mindset to look to the future. Artificial intelligence (AI), precision medicine and digital therapeutics have grown in importance and companies that have continued to rely on Covid-related revenues are running into problems. 

Next year will likely see some of these themes mature and others that are now nascent rise in popularity. As 2024 approaches, GlobalData’s analysts examine the trends that will shape the year ahead.

AI will remain a key healthcare theme in 2024. Even though it is still in its early phases, GlobalData’s Generative AI in the Medical Devices Sector report predicts that the market for the technology will be worth $908.7bn by 2030 with a compound annual growth rate of 35% between 2022 and 2030.

There are a number of clinical trials in early stages of development that use generative AI in the healthcare space, including MicroTech Medical’s artificial pancreas powered by AI and OxDX’s rapid diagnostic test for infectious disease. While many of these will likely not end up in clinical trial stage, the sheer number make it very likely that AI will have an increased presence in the sector next year. 

Various concerns about the technology remain, however, particularly to do with security and privacy when exposing patient records to AI. In particular, there are fears about transmitting data to the cloud, where it is more exposed to hackers and malicious actors. Improvements in edge computing AI, with which AI is stored locally as opposed to on the cloud, could help mitigate this issue as they develop in 2024. 

Personalised medicine is another theme that has been a hot topic this year but will see further maturation in 2024. Improvements will, of course, be seen in areas such as genetic testing and therapeutic methods, but also in building vitally important background infrastructure to accelerate the rollout of this technology.  

GlobalData’s Precision & Personalized Medicine report notes two key areas in this regard as big data and bioinformatics.

Big data refers to the use of the vast quantities of data that can now be collected on patients to improve health outcomes. It is different from traditional data collection through its sheer scale, which makes older processing and compiling techniques less effective. The report notes that it can “go beyond electronic records and play a role in pharmacogenetics and stratified healthcare by generating genomic databases to find links between genomic biomarkers and drug sensitivity in cancer and other diseases”.

Given how versatile big data is, and how many areas to which it is applicable, next year will likely see development across the medical sector. It is particularly helpful in the area of personalised medicine, for example in the field of bioinformatics. Bioinformatics is the use of computer technology to collect, store, analyse, and disseminate biological information such as DNA and amino acid sequences. Big data plays a vital role in this by accruing and processing patient data to allow this analysis to take place. 

China has been making use of integrated clinical datasets since 2016 and is currently developing a precision medicine database to advance the nation’s capacities in the field. There are, however, some concerns about the expansion of data collection, particularly when it comes to data as sensitive as genomics. This is a tension that will only grow as the technology improves, and one that will require robust diligence from companies and governments to ensure trust in the area doesn’t fail. 

Reimbursement is always important in the healthcare sector, as the treatments, devices and medicines that insurers and governments are willing to pay for are inevitably the ones that will have the most impact. In 2024, however, the theme will become particularly important as treatments such as gene therapies and digital therapeutics develop.  

In 2023, reimbursement made headlines as inflation pushed governments to fight for lower pricing of drugs and procedures. The US began price negotiations for some drugs provided to its insurance programme Medicare in August, marking the first time it has pursued such a measure. Even though the rate of inflation has lowered in recent months, and is likely to remain below the heights of early 2023, it will still be a factor in reimbursement discussions going into 2024. 

One of the hangovers of high inflation is that governments in particular may be more risk-averse to covering new and expensive treatments like gene therapy. A large barrier to the wider adoption of these therapies is currently that they have prohibitive cost. The world-first approval of a CRISPR gene therapy for sickle cell disease by Vertex is of course cause for celebration, but this is muted somewhat by the price tag that may reach up to $3m per patient.  

Whether or not insurers and governments can be persuaded that the long-term cost savings of a healthier population outweigh the initial expense will be vital in the success of the technology in the mainstream. Industry experts are positive about this possibility. In a recent conversation with Pharmaceutical Technology, managing partner of investment firm Gilde Healthcare said that once the benefits are proven, “reimbursement will be turned upside down”. 

The need for preventative medicine like gene therapy will only grow, particularly as global populations continue to age. 2024 is likely to see the beginnings of a paradigm shift in reimbursement that prioritises long-term health over acute treatment.